The Asian Development Bank (ADB) in late December 2020 released its December supplementary report, keeping its forecast for the Cambodian economy to shrink by 4% at 2020 as the same as the September forecast. But for 2021, the ADB has cut its forecast slightly, with the latest forecast that Cambodia’s economy will grow by 5.4 percent next year, up from 5.9 percent in September. .
David Freedman, the ADB’s country economist, said in December that Cambodia’s economy would shrink by around 4% by 2020 and that growth would slow. Recovery in 2021 at a rate of 5.4%.
The ADB added that Cambodia is diversifying its export capacity, which is key to future growth as Cambodia is based on open trade.
Regarding Cambodia’s economic forecast, according to Chan Sophal, an independent economist and director of the Center for Policy Studies, recently said: For 2021, Cambodia’s economy is unlikely to recover remarkably well as tourism is expected to return. This winter, however, in Europe and the United States, there are still cases of Covid-19 infection, despite the news of a vaccine discovery. However, most people do not yet have access to the vaccine, and they may still be afraid to travel while restricted across-country travel may also continue.
According to the summary of the draft law on finance for the management of 2021 of the Ministry of Economy and Finance, said that in 2021, the Royal Government of Cambodia approves Nearly $ 700 Million for Continuing Interventions Against the Impact of Covid-19 for Relief of the Poor and Vulnerable Workers, such as supporting small and medium enterprises.
Economists estimate that the amount of funding for the Covid-19 impact intervention is nearly $ 700 million, which is a considerable amount compared to the amount of national budget collected. Because next year’s tax revenue is unlikely to be as high as before, as many businesses have been and continue to be affected by Covid-19.
If we look at the economic forecasts of other countries in the ASEAN region, we see that in 2020, the ASEAN countries with the largest economic decline. The Philippines was hit by the ADB – 8.5%, followed by Thailand – 7.8%, Singapore – 6.2% and Malaysia – 6%. Vietnam, on the other hand, is projected to grow 2.3% in 2020 and reach 6.1% in 2021.